GETTIN’ NERDY!

If you like numbers, or have just wondered what product is still remaining, this is the page for you! In each of the sections below, you can see a brief summary of some more complex, behind the scenes equations that take the number of grails we know have been hit and combine that information with Topps Chrome odds to estimate how many Blaster and Hobby boxes remain.

To be clear, this is just a starting point & ESTIMATE! Do not use this information to make financial decisions. Just geek out with us and enjoy watching the analysis grow as we add Manga Super Stickers, Sapphire, and more!

How to Use

  1. Set Reporting captured to reflect how complete you think the tracker is.
  2. Adjust Hobby pack share if you believe more Hobby (vs Blaster) remains sealed.
  3. Read the big number: Estimated Product Remaining (% unopened).
  4. See Packs and Boxes/Cases remaining (live, based on your sliders).
  5. (Optional) Open Assumptions to get even nerdier about the math.

VeeFriends Topps Chrome 2025 — Product Remaining Estimator

Move this if you believe we are missing 1/1s that have been pulled (lower %) or if you think our tracker is super accurate (higher %). We’ve set it to 75% because we think some private collectors are keeping their grails….erm, well…private.
Change this based on whether you think there are more Hobby than Blaster boxes out there. We think it’s about a 60-40 split due to the higher cost of hobby boxes. But if you think they should be even, change it to 50%.
Estimated Product Remaining
–
95% CrI (Range): – – –
Estimated Packs Remaining
–
Split by Hobby/Blaster mix above.
Boxes / Cases Remaining (Est.)
Hobby: – boxes • – cases
Blaster: – boxes • – cases
Assumptions Expand to get even nerdier
Prior: Beta(1, 1)
Reporting captured (r): 0.75
Hobby pack share: 60%
Hobby packs/box: 24 • Blaster packs/box: 8
Categories counted: – • Total 1/1s: – • Logged pulls: –
Cases assumed: Hobby 12 boxes • Blaster 40 boxes
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